I don't think you are nuts Tony. Thinking about values and the watch market is an interesting and sometimes useful exercise. Most of us will never own any of the stratospheric icons of the watch world for which you can apply your metrics but your numbers are interesting. Most of us would love to be able to value into the future our mundane goods like the vintage Heuer/Zenith/JLC/Breitling/UG/Omega etc but most of us know that an average vintage watch is simply worth what someone is willing to pay on a given day. During the pandemic, I got a call one day from a lawyer here in town who said he was representing a group of lawyers who wanted to "invest" in watches, mostly Patek and Rolex. He said that someone had told him I knew how to buy watches. I told him that I was not interested and that when I bought Patek and Rolex watches my aim was to buy them and sell them within a few days and that I already had plenty of paying customers. He asked me if there was money in these watches as a longer term investment and I said "no, not in my opinion." I never spoke to him again and...as it turned out, I was wrong, at least in the short part of the long term. Rolex and Patek went way up. That said, I still know a lot of people, from guys like this lawyer to fairly knowledgeable watch dealers who are stuck with, inventory, especially Rolex, that they paid way over list for and were not willing to take their losses and move on. For me, watches as an investment is only a good thing if they are gone and paid for in a few days...but then people say I am nuts and they are probably right.
ah, the "investing in watches" call, something I think every watch collector/dealer/writer has gotten at some point. Those have always seemed like a bad idea, for many of the reasons you mention. as true investments, watches mostly don't make sense.
That said, I do think it's important for collectors to think rationally about the "investment" they're making in watches.
I agree Tony. Unless a person is uber wealthy, any collection can amount to a serious "investment." The folk who say "simply buy what you like" are naive to me. If you don't think, at least a little bit, about a "way out" when you are buying watches, you are being foolish. I want to think that I am renting all of my watches. If I end up selling one from the collection for more than what I paid, I paid negative rent.
Pay tomorrow’s price today, great way of expressing the importance of research. I bought a Polerouter Deluxe a couple of weeks before the official release of the reissue, did great with the sale. Great ready as always!
For us cheapskates, will QA ever be recorded or available after the fact? You should tease us with a couple for free so we eventually break down. I don’t need a leather valet (and there’s a company in SF making them with cactus leather) but do need to know the opinion on laser welding.
oh we need it, we can’t live without it. but we can just buy new watches, at the retail price, when we deem the watch worthy. we can even buy the new ones below retail in most cases.
but vintage prices are so arbitrary, set by those with no accountability, trading hands over and over among the same shrinking group. i see no good reason why they should be so high, they have no where to go but down.
I don't think you are nuts Tony. Thinking about values and the watch market is an interesting and sometimes useful exercise. Most of us will never own any of the stratospheric icons of the watch world for which you can apply your metrics but your numbers are interesting. Most of us would love to be able to value into the future our mundane goods like the vintage Heuer/Zenith/JLC/Breitling/UG/Omega etc but most of us know that an average vintage watch is simply worth what someone is willing to pay on a given day. During the pandemic, I got a call one day from a lawyer here in town who said he was representing a group of lawyers who wanted to "invest" in watches, mostly Patek and Rolex. He said that someone had told him I knew how to buy watches. I told him that I was not interested and that when I bought Patek and Rolex watches my aim was to buy them and sell them within a few days and that I already had plenty of paying customers. He asked me if there was money in these watches as a longer term investment and I said "no, not in my opinion." I never spoke to him again and...as it turned out, I was wrong, at least in the short part of the long term. Rolex and Patek went way up. That said, I still know a lot of people, from guys like this lawyer to fairly knowledgeable watch dealers who are stuck with, inventory, especially Rolex, that they paid way over list for and were not willing to take their losses and move on. For me, watches as an investment is only a good thing if they are gone and paid for in a few days...but then people say I am nuts and they are probably right.
ah, the "investing in watches" call, something I think every watch collector/dealer/writer has gotten at some point. Those have always seemed like a bad idea, for many of the reasons you mention. as true investments, watches mostly don't make sense.
That said, I do think it's important for collectors to think rationally about the "investment" they're making in watches.
I agree Tony. Unless a person is uber wealthy, any collection can amount to a serious "investment." The folk who say "simply buy what you like" are naive to me. If you don't think, at least a little bit, about a "way out" when you are buying watches, you are being foolish. I want to think that I am renting all of my watches. If I end up selling one from the collection for more than what I paid, I paid negative rent.
🔥
Pay tomorrow’s price today, great way of expressing the importance of research. I bought a Polerouter Deluxe a couple of weeks before the official release of the reissue, did great with the sale. Great ready as always!
For us cheapskates, will QA ever be recorded or available after the fact? You should tease us with a couple for free so we eventually break down. I don’t need a leather valet (and there’s a company in SF making them with cactus leather) but do need to know the opinion on laser welding.
no recording and "off record," that's part of the appeal! More seriously, will be doing plenty more (written) Q&As and chats for all subscribers
pay tomorrow’s price today, heard that one before. but what if tomorrow’s price is lower than today’s? look what’s happened to vintage subs.
i say don’t buy today, or tomorrow or for another year. then the seller has to drop his price because no one can sit on their inventory forever.
Yes of course, that’s always an option too. No one needs a watch
oh we need it, we can’t live without it. but we can just buy new watches, at the retail price, when we deem the watch worthy. we can even buy the new ones below retail in most cases.
but vintage prices are so arbitrary, set by those with no accountability, trading hands over and over among the same shrinking group. i see no good reason why they should be so high, they have no where to go but down.
Vintage prices aren’t arbitrary, the prices are set by the market as your previous comment alludes to. If no one buys, prices have to go down.
Some prices will go down, some will go up.